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Start making babies
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Date Posted on this Site
March 17, 2007
Publication
National Post
Publication Date
March 14, 2007
Published Content
On the surface, the 2006 Census results released on Tuesday paint a rosy picture: Between 2001 and 2006, Canada added 1.6 million people--bringing our population to almost 32 million. This fact should make us the envy of other Western nations, many of which are actually losing population. The latest census data suggests Canada has the highest population growth rate of any G8 nation.
But beneath that sunny macro statistic lies a disturbing fact: It is only thanks to immigration that we are able to generate respectable numbers. Indeed, the data show that the fertility rate for Canadian womenis a mere 1.5, i.e., Canadian women are having, on average, just 1.5 children during their reproductive lifetimes. That is half a point less than the 2.0 fertility rate in the United States, and 0.6 points lower than the 2.1 level that is necessary to sustain a stable native-born population.
Of course, Canada is a nation of immigrants. And the fact that immigrants and their offspring constitute an increasingly large share of our population base is not objectionable in itself. But how long can this last? Eventually, there simply won't be enough high-quality immigrants to make the system work.
In recent times, Canada has settled about 240,000 immigrants per year -- or about 0.7% of our population. This is extraordinarily high by international standards, and it is doubtful that it can be sustained. With many Western nations in full-blown fertility crisis (Japan, Russia and some southern European nations have fertility rates trending toward 1.0), we will soon witness an increasingly competitive battle for the most educated and prosperous immigrants from the developing world. Canada is an attractive destination for immigrants -- but no more so than, say, Australia or Italy.
Complicating matters further is the fact that the countries where some of the most historically successful immigrants come from --China, the Indian subcontinent and the nations of southeast Asia -- are experiencing economic booms. For some professionals, it is now easier to find work in Bangalore and Shanghai than in Toronto and Montreal.
Eventually, Canada will be faced with two options, neither good: limit our intake of immigrants, or lower our immigration criteria to sustain the current high numbers. In the former case, our population will drop. In the latter case, our economy will be saddled with waves of poor performers who burden our social- welfare systems and contribute little to the public fisc. Either way, there will be no one to pay the bills when the current crop of middle-aged Canadians retire.
There is a third option, however -- and that is to encourage the people who are already in Canada to have more babies. Admittedly, it's hard for government to get its way in the bedrooms of the nation: Parents don't listen to public-service announcements when they decide whether to have children. Instead, they make such important decisions on the basis of income, lifestyle choice, religious and cultural considerations, age and health.
Yet evidence from other countries shows government policies can have some effect. In France, for instance, a generous tax subsidy for couples with children -- three children or more, in particular -- has spurred a mini-renaissance in the country's birth rate.
Let's hope yesterday's census data inspires Ottawa politicians thinking about how they can achieve similar results. Immigration is keeping our population growing for now. But sooner or later, we're going to have to rely on the fruit of our own Canadian loins.
My Response Letter
Canadians already make lots of babies. But every year, more 100,000 of these new Canadians are not born. Instead, they are aborted. If Canada wants to get serious about its non-sustainable birthrate, perhaps it should start by restricting abortion and seeking to better assist those parents who become pregnant.
Jason Gennaro
Was my response published?
No